Forces of Nature Convince Many of Climate Change

Reuters

Jul 23, 2007

BRIESKOW-FINKENHEERD-Fisherman Peter Schneider knows the floods come each year and says they are good for business-but few other people see any benefit as experts warn of more high water to come.

"We fishermen have always lived with that. We're happy when the floods come, because it can only be good for the fish," he said in his village close to the Oder river that forms the border between Germany and Poland.

"It would be wrong to deny the possible impact of climate change on flooding because if we (waited for more) statistical proof it may be too late," said Wolfgang Grabs at the World Meteorological Organisation of the United Nations.

Warmer air can hold more water and will unleash more energy when the weather turns bad, Grabs said, making storms heavier and boosting rainfall.

That mechanism may well explain an observed rise in flash floods in Europe over the last decade, he said.

In recent weeks, parts of China have seen the heaviest rainfall since records began, killing more than 400. Some 770 people have been killed by flooding in South Asia, with hundreds of thousands displaced by flash floods in southern Pakistan.

Thousands of flood victims in Britain last week were clearing chaos and braced for more after floods in northern parts of the country, triggering the country's biggest peacetime rescue effort.

European grain prices have risen to their highest level for around 10 years on fears that bad weather will hit this summer's crops, stoking food price inflation.

Initially, a spring drought caused damage to wheat crops across Europe and in key grower Ukraine. Since June, heavy rain in western Europe has increased concerns over quality, which may leave bread-makers short of high-grade grain later this year.

Something is Changing

Floods killed more than 7,000 people in the world last year, a recent study by reinsurance group Swiss Re study showed-roughly a third of all victims of natural catastrophes such as storms, earthquakes, droughts and extreme cold or heat.

Statistics gathered by insurers-who look at the cost of a catastrophe to measure its severity, not the death toll-also indicate climate is changing.

"One single event can never be a sign of climate change," said Jens Mehlhorn, who heads a team of flood experts at the Zurich-based company.

"But when you see a series of such events, and that's what it looks like at the moment ... it may be about time to say something is changing," he said.

This year's UK floods were an event statistical models say should happen once only every 30 to 50 years, Mehlhorn says: the floods in 2000 were a 25-30 years event.

Two such events in only seven years are not statistically impossible, but they are unlikely. Other countries have seen similar increases in such disasters.

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